Now is when we start hearing that the GOP establishment will pull out all the stops to keep Donald Trump from garnering the nomination. Scenarios range from one of the remaining candidates, such as Ted Cruz, besting Trump in the remaining primaries as the field is winnowed, to a brokered convention where a dark horse (e.g., Mitt Romney, Paul Ryan) emerges. The problem for an ABT proponent is that the history is daunting. Brokered conventions have not occurred since 1956. Ca

Pundits are abuzz with speculation that former NYC mayor Michael Bloomberg may mount a third party bid for the presidency. The question arises: Could such a bid be something other than a quixotic endeavor? Presidential election history suggests the task is daunting. There have only been three credible third party bids in the last century, 1912, 1968 and 1992. As an iconic former president and noted progressive, TR ate into Wilson’s progressive support and Taft’s establishment

As with so many things, the answer may lie with history. Consider Mike Huckabee who won the Iowa caucuses in 2008 and Rick Santorum who matched that feat in 2012. In 2016, both men garnered about 1% in the same state’s caucus, and shortly thereafter abandoned their quest for the nomination. To provide a Democratic illustration, in 1968, Gene McCarthy stunned the political world by garnering 42% of the New Hampshire primary vote against a sitting president, whom he helped forc